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            Speculative Behaviors and Net Mortgage Loan to Net Speculative Gain Ratio in the Real Estate Market of China

            王升 , Sheng Wang




            It is systemic to expound how that the speculative behaviors are driven by the numbers of a series housing policies promulgated by China’s government for the real estate market. The market is resulted in full of speculative behaviors, and has been booming since the beginning of this decade, even though the market has only a very short history, How to measure the speculative behaviors still remains open in the academe and practice. Based on the level of housing prices, this paper establishes some innovative dynamic models, proposes a concept of net mortgage loan to net speculative gain ratios to investigate the speculative and other consequent phenomena, and finally concludes some interesting results: The necessary condition of speculative behaviors’ existence is that the growth rate of housing prices must have a positive minimum boundary, and, the net mortgage loan to net speculative gain ratios subsequently exist, which approximately depict the potential risks Banks would face. Furthermore, agents’ behaviors may impact the housing prices’ trend through changing the expectation or variance of housing returns in sale or resale massively. The last finding indicates that how agents’ behaviors change market’ behaviors, which evidently testifies the efficient market hypothesis would be invalid.

            【免責聲明】以下全部內容由[王升]上傳于[2011年10月13日 02時42分15秒],版權歸原創者所有。本文僅代表作者本人觀點,與本網站無關。本網站對文中陳述、觀點判斷保持中立,不對所包含內容的準確性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保證。請讀者僅作參考,并請自行承擔全部責任。


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